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THE CAPITAL BRIEF

88.2%
Share of US venture capital raised through Q3 2026 that went to established firms on their fourth fund or later, the highest share in PitchBook’s records. First-time funds raised $4.9 billion across 81 vehicles. The capital is still flowing. It is flowing to fewer names, and the managers outside that circle are fundraising in person or not at all.

Opening Observation

A month ago the directory listed four confirmed events in the first quarter of 2027. Today it lists more than fifty. Dates are landing fast, and the biggest change on the calendar is easy to miss: SuperReturn North America now opens February 1, six weeks ahead of its 2026 slot. Two rooms this issue sit in the next four weeks. Two more sit in a February that is filling faster than most fundraising timelines assume.

Room’s Worth Being In

ILPA Summit for GPs and Fund of Funds | November 3-5, New York
ILPA’s New York summit is built around one function: putting GPs in front of LPs in structured meetings. Each invited GP receives a personalized meeting schedule generated by ILPA’s matching process and concierge team, and the invitation list is capped at the top 90 GPs. GP applications have closed, which tells you the demand side of the room is set. For LPs, this is three days of pre-screened manager meetings in a single venue. Few rooms on the fall calendar match that efficiency.

SuperReturn Private Credit North America | November 16-18, New York
Informa’s private credit gathering brings 450+ attendees, including 150+ LPs and 200+ GPs, to Convene on Madison Avenue. Speakers include David Colla of CPP Investments, Jennifer Shum of HOOPP, Scott Baskind of Invesco, and Carolyn Hastings of Bain Capital. Day one carries a dedicated Asset-Backed Finance Summit, which is where much of the new private credit supply is heading. LPs can apply to attend at no cost. Given the deployment numbers in this issue’s Capital Signals, expect the hallway conversation to center on one question: where does all this capital go?

Pension Bridge Private Credit | February 8-10, Carlsbad
With Intelligence’s private credit allocator event returns to the Park Hyatt Aviara with 250+ attendees, 60+ speakers, and a stated two-to-one investor-to-manager ratio. Ken Stemme of the UAW Retiree Medical Benefits Trust keynotes. The allocator lineup includes Jennifer Hartviksen of IMCO, Jason Morrow of Utah Retirement Systems, and Eunice McHugh of SFERS. Pension Bridge rooms run lean on service providers and heavy on public plan decision-makers, which makes this one of the more efficient credit rooms of the first quarter.

GCVI Summit | February 23-25, Monterey
The Global Corporate Venturing and Innovation Summit is the largest dedicated gathering of corporate venture capital, drawing 800+ delegates and 100 speakers across three days of sessions and one-to-one meetings. With institutional venture dollars concentrating in established firms, corporate balance sheets are one of the few large LP and co-investor pools still writing checks to newer managers and earlier-stage deals. For VC GPs building a non-traditional LP base, Monterey is the room.

Capital Signals

AI took 82.7% of US venture deal value this year, and the quarterly share is declining. US venture deal value reached $515.8 billion through Q3 2026, roughly 44% above 2021’s full-year record of $357.9 billion, per the PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor. AI startups captured 82.7% of it. The quarterly trend matters more than the total: AI’s share fell to 65.9% in Q3. Pair that with the 88.2% concentration figure above and the picture is clear. A handful of large firms raised the money, and the largest checks went to AI. For LPs re-underwriting their venture books, the question heading into 2027 is not whether venture is back. It is whether a portfolio built in 2025 and 2026 is diversified at all.

Private credit has more money than it can lend. Direct lending funds raised a record $129.15 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 35% year over year and the highest nine-month total since Preqin began tracking in 2016, per Private Equity Wire. Over the same stretch, Q3 direct lending volume fell 28% to $49.77 billion, and roughly $16.4 billion of direct loans refinanced back into the syndicated market against $2.6 billion moving the other way. Fundraising is outrunning deployment. Expect managers to push harder into asset-backed finance and specialty lending, and expect LPs to ask sharper questions about dry powder and pacing at the November and February credit rooms above.

The Spotlight

SuperReturn North America Moves to February: What a Six-Week Shift Does to the Q1 Calendar

SuperReturn North America spent 2026 in mid-March at the InterContinental Miami. In 2027 it opens February 1 at the Signia by Hilton Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood, Florida. Six weeks earlier, a short drive up the coast. On paper, a scheduling change. In practice, it resets the timeline for every GP planning a first-quarter fundraising push.

The room is worth understanding first. Informa’s published figures put SuperReturn North America at 800+ attendees, including 250+ LPs and 350+ GPs from 22 countries, with more than 20,000 meetings booked through the event. The confirmed 2027 lineup includes Michael Ewald of Bain Capital, Lorne Somerville of CVC, Mark Hoeing of Commonfund, Amyn Hassanally of Pantheon, Alicia Levine of BNY Wealth, and Regina Cho of Crewcial Partners. LPs can attend at no cost, which keeps the allocator side of the room deep.

Now the timing. A February 1 start means materials, data rooms, and meeting requests need to be finished in January, not February. For managers who treat the new year as the start of fundraising season, the runway just shortened by more than a month. The move also creates a February cluster: SuperReturn on February 1, Pension Bridge Private Credit a week later in Carlsbad, and GCVI in Monterey at the end of the month. Three of the more LP-dense rooms of the quarter now sit inside four weeks.

That cluster matters most for the managers this issue’s opening number leaves out. When 88.2% of venture capital goes to established firms, emerging managers do not get found through inbound. They get found in rooms like these, in person, before allocators finalize their 2027 pacing. Last issue’s Oklahoma Teachers story showed there are LPs actively looking for new relationships. February is when many of them will be in the same building.

The practical takeaway: if SuperReturn North America is on your 2027 plan, treat it as a January deadline.

On The Wire

  • Investments and Wealth Institute Experience (Nov 16-17, Scottsdale): two days on portfolio construction, retirement planning, and practice management for advisors. Speakers include Daniel Pink, Dorie Clark, and Brian Levitt. Strong fit for RIA teams planning 2027 continuing education.

  • SuperReturn Private Credit North America (Nov 16-18, New York): LP registration still open at no cost. Registration window closing.

  • Blackstone closes Energy Transition Partners V at $8.7B: hit its hard cap on October 19, more than 50% larger than its predecessor. Energy transition remains one of the few thematic strategies drawing institutional capital at scale. Via Alternatives Watch.

  • Disruptive targets $10B VC fund with $7.5B already committed: Dallas-based firm is running one of the largest single VC fundraises on record, per Wall Street Journal reporting October 7. The concentration theme in this issue’s data made concrete.

  • Forbion raises €2.3B for life sciences across two funds: BDC, PGGM, MN, KfW Capital, the Kauffman Foundation, and Eli Lilly anchor the raise. A reminder that venture concentration has exceptions outside AI - life sciences LP conviction is holding.

As always, happy allocating.
The Capital Brief Team

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